The CMHC Housing Market Assessment (HMA) is an analytical framework that provides a comprehensive view of vulnerabilities to housing market instability in Canada. It assesses 4 main factors: overheating, price acceleration (also known as “price growth acceleration”), overvaluation and overbuilding.
Our latest HMA results are based on data from the first quarter of 2018 and market intelligence as of the end of June 2018. Here are the highlights:
For the eighth straight quarter, the HMA showed a high degree of housing market vulnerability at the national level. This vulnerability was due to the detection of price acceleration and overvaluation.
Housing markets in Victoria, Vancouver, Toronto and Hamilton remain highly vulnerable because of price acceleration and overvaluation. We detected especially high evidence of overvaluation in Vancouver, Victoria and Toronto where house prices remain higher than levels supported by economic and demographic fundamentals.
The degree of overall vulnerability remains moderate for Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon and Regina. Housing markets in these centres continue to show evidence of overbuilding.
Our overall assessment of Montréal showed a low degree of vulnerability. However, house prices continue to grow rapidly in certain neighborhoods. If this strong growth were to persist, we could signal price acceleration in a future HMA report.
Winnipeg, Ottawa, Québec City, Moncton, Halifax and St. John’s continue to receive a low rating of vulnerability, overall. However, evidence of overvaluation has changed from low to moderate for Winnipeg, as home prices continued to rise while real personal disposable income declined.